Current WXSIM Forecast

Monday, 10-Dec-2018 08:00 pm

Tonight

Mostly Clear
Cold!
Mostly Clear
Cold!
Low: 23°
Tuesday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 50°
Tuesday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 23°
Wednesday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 51°
Wednesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Low: 28°
Thursday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 43°
Thursday
night
Clear
Cold!
Clear
Cold!
Low: 24°
Friday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 47°
Friday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 20°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 11-Dec-2018 12:35am CST

Overnight

Overnight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 20 °F ↑
Tuesday

Tuesday: Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny

Hi 39 °F ↓
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy

Lo 23 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 41 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy

Lo 27 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy

Hi 39 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 21 °F
Friday

Friday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 41 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Clear
Clear

Lo 21 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 11   14 34 ↓   39 19   21 39   48 23   27 37   44 25   28 38   40
12-09-18 15 ↑ 21.5°F 21 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 43 10   17 32   44 20   26 40   53 25   27 39   48
12-08-18 15 ↑ 26.0°F 17 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 39 14 21.5°F 19 31 34.6 °F 41 11   16 30   43 19   27 40   56
12-07-18 12 ↑ 20.6°F 17 28 ↓ 34.6 °F 35 12 26.0°F 18 29 34.6 °F 36 12 21.5°F 21 30 34.6 °F 42 10   16 30   40
12-06-18 20 ↑ 20.7°F 24 24 ↓ 31.5 °F 34 9 20.6°F 15 27 34.6 °F 35 8 26.0°F 18 25 34.6 °F 36 13 21.5°F 15 29 34.6 °F 38
12-05-18 19 29.1°F 21 37 ↓ 39.8 °F 44 20 ↑ 20.7°F 24 23 31.5 °F 35 8 20.6°F 17 24 34.6 °F 35 7 26.0°F 19 22 34.6 °F 32
12-04-18 16 25.8°F 21 28 ↓ 31.3 °F 32 17 29.1°F 18 34 39.8 °F 41 16 20.7°F 20 22 31.5 °F 34 3 20.6°F 12 20 34.6 °F 34
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7     33.3 20.0   0.0     60.0     50.0     50.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 7.8   4.9 4.7   3.4 9.2   6.1 6.2   2.6 11.2   3.2 8.6   2.9 15.0   7.4 10.9   2.2
Net Error -7.8   -3.8 -4.7   3.4 -9.2   -4.8 -6.2   2.6 -11.2   -3.2 -8.6   2.9 -15.0   -7.4 -10.9   0.1
Std Dev 4.6   3.5 2.5   2.8 6.3   4.3 4.2   2.6 9.7   3.1 7.7   3.4 15.0   7.4 10.9   2.2

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 11   14 34 ↓   39 19   21 38   48 22   27 37   44 27   28 39   40
12-09-18 15 ↑ 15.3°F 43 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 16 11   42 35   24 21   50 40   27 23   47 38   28
12-08-18 15 ↑ 34.6 °F 38 30 ↓ 19.5°F 20 16 15.3°F 40 31 34.6 °F 16 10   43 33   27 20   56 40   35
12-07-18 12 ↑ 34.6 °F 36 29 ↓ 16.9°F 16 14 34.6 °F 37 28 19.5°F 19 13 15.3°F 41 31 34.6 °F 16 11   41 29   24
12-06-18 20 ↑ 31.5 °F 35 24 ↓ 20.7°F 16 10 34.6 °F 37 27 16.9°F 17 10 34.6 °F 39 26 19.5°F 17 13 15.3°F 42 29 34.6 °F 17
12-05-18 19 39.8 °F 47 37 ↓ 26.5°F 26 20 ↑ 31.5 °F 36 23 20.7°F 17 8 34.6 °F 36 24 16.9°F 15 7 34.6 °F 38 22 19.5°F 17
12-04-18 16 31.3 °F 31 28 ↓ 22.5°F 18 17 39.8 °F 41 35 26.5°F 19 19 31.5 °F 34 23 20.7°F 17 5 34.6 °F 36 20 16.9°F 17
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 3 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   50.0 20.0   20.0     40.0     25.0     25.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 15.0   7.3 7.3   5.0 16.0   7.0 6.6   6.1 16.5   8.5 4.9   6.7 19.8   10.5 3.7   6.7
Net Error -15.0   7.2 6.7   -4.8 -15.8   7.0 5.2   -6.0 -16.5   8.5 3.1   -6.7 -19.8   10.5 0.0   -6.7
Std Dev 9.7   9.4 4.9   6.7 13.0   9.5 4.7   7.7 16.0   11.3 4.3   8.3 19.8   10.5 3.7   6.7

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 34 ↓   41 19   25 38 ↓   53 22   24 37   54 27   34 39   46 20   28
12-09-18 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 43 11 12.6°F 16 35 ↓   42 21   24 40   50 23   27 38   47 24   28
12-08-18 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 37 16 19.5°F 19 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 42 10 12.6°F 15 33   44 20   27 40   56 24   35
12-07-18 29 ↓ 34.6 °F 38 14 15.4°F 18 28 ↓ 34.6 °F 39 13 19.5°F 20 31 34.6 °F 42 11 12.6°F 17 29   41 17   25
12-06-18 24 ↓ 31.5 °F 38 10 18.2°F 19 27 ↓ 34.6 °F 40 10 15.4°F 19 26 34.6 °F 41 13 19.5°F 18 29 34.6 °F 43 11 12.6°F 17
12-05-18 37 ↓ 39.8 °F 43 20 ↑ 23.9°F 25 23 ↓ 31.5 °F 34 8 18.2°F 16 24 34.6 °F 35 7 15.4°F 14 22 34.6 °F 37 8 19.5°F 17
12-04-18 28 ↓ 31.3 °F 32 17 20.4°F 18 35 ↓ 39.8 °F 42 19 23.9°F 20 23 31.5 °F 34 5 18.2°F 17 20 34.6 °F 36 6 15.4°F 17
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7 33.3   50.0     0.0     20.0     25.0 25.0   75.0     33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 4.2   4.1 3.7   1.8 6.2   4.4 5.9   2.5 7.8   4.2 7.4   2.1 10.9   4.1 7.5   2.8
Net Error -4.2   4.1 -3.7   0.8 -6.2   4.4 -5.9   0.1 -7.8   4.2 -7.4   0.1 -10.9   4.1 -7.5   1.2
Std Dev 2.6   2.7 2.7   1.3 4.2   3.1 4.0   1.9 7.1   4.0 7.1   2.2 10.9   4.1 7.5   2.8

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 34 ↓   41 19   25 38 ↓   53 22   24 37   54 27   34 39   46 20   28
12-09-18 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 38 11 12.6°F 14 35 ↓   41 21   24 40   50 23   26 38   48 24   30
12-08-18 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 37 16 19.6°F 19 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 42 10 12.6°F 15 33   44 20   27 40   56 24   35
12-07-18 29 ↓ 34.6 °F 34 14 15.4°F 15 28 ↓ 34.6 °F 36 13 19.6°F 18 31 34.6 °F 40 11 12.6°F 15 29   41 17   26
12-06-18 28 ↓ 31.5 °F 32 10 18.2°F 13 27 ↓ 34.6 °F 34 10 15.4°F 16 26 34.6 °F 37 13 19.6°F 17 29 34.6 °F 40 11 12.6°F 16
12-05-18 37 ↓ 39.8 °F 41 20 ↑ 23.9°F 23 23 ↓ 31.5 °F 33 8 18.2°F 14 24 34.6 °F 33 7 15.4°F 17 22 34.6 °F 36 8 19.6°F 17
12-03-18 25 ↓ 31.3 °F 29 15 20.4°F 18 28 ↓ 39.8 °F 31 15 23.9°F 16 34 31.5 °F 41 17 18.2°F 20 22 34.6 °F 32 4 15.4°F 12
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 2 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 0
% Succ 16.7   50.0 33.3   66.7     60.0     40.0     25.0 50.0   50.0     33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 4.1   1.7 4.0   1.8 7.6   3.9 6.7   3.3 6.3   4.7 4.5   2.1 10.3   3.1 8.2   3.1
Net Error -4.1   0.8 -4.0   -1.4 -7.6   0.2 -6.7   -2.1 -5.1   3.9 -4.5   0.8 -10.3   1.4 -8.2   -0.9
Std Dev 2.1   1.2 2.8   1.8 5.2   3.5 4.7   2.6 5.6   4.1 4.1   1.8 10.3   3.1 8.2   3.1

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 2:01 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 34 ↓   38 19   22 38 ↓   49 22   24 37   51 27   29 39   44 20   23
12-09-18 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 40 11 12.6°F 15 35 ↓   41 20   23 39   51 23   26 37   48 25   30
12-08-18 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 34 16 19.6°F 16 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 37 10 12.6°F 14 33   42 20   23 40   51 24   31
12-07-18 29 ↓ 34.6 °F 34 13 15.4°F 15 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 35 14 19.6°F 19 31 34.6 °F 39 11 12.6°F 15 30   41 19   25
12-06-18 28 ↓ 31.5 °F 31 12 18.2°F 12 27 ↓ 34.6 °F 32 10 15.4°F 16 26 34.6 °F 36 13 19.6°F 17 29 34.6 °F 39 11 12.6°F 15
12-05-18 37 ↓ 39.8 °F 40 20 ↑ 23.9°F 21 23 ↓ 31.5 °F 31 8 18.2°F 13 24 34.6 °F 32 7 15.4°F 16 22 34.6 °F 36 8 19.6°F 17
12-04-18 28 ↓ 31.3 °F 32 17 20.4°F 19 35 ↓ 39.8 °F 41 19 23.9°F 21 23 31.5 °F 34 5 18.2°F 15 20 34.6 °F 34 6 15.4°F 17
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 5 1 2 0 3 0 3 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 1
% Succ 16.7   83.3 16.7   33.3     60.0     60.0     25.0 25.0   25.0     66.7 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 3.6   1.3 3.5   2.8 5.8   1.4 5.7   2.1 7.8   2.7 7.5   2.2 10.9   2.1 7.5   2.2
Net Error -3.6   0.8 -3.5   -2.0 -5.8   0.2 -5.7   -1.3 -7.8   1.4 -7.5   -0.7 -10.9   1.7 -7.5   0.5
Std Dev 1.9   1.9 2.0   2.1 3.9   1.2 3.9   1.7 7.1   2.5 7.1   1.9 10.9   2.1 7.5   2.2

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 37 ↓   23 20   50 39 ↓   24 23   51 41   29 27   43 39   24 21   47
12-09-18 34 ↓ 12.6°F 14 8 34.6 °F 39 35 ↓   21 19   50 39   27 23   45 37   29 25   41
12-08-18 33 ↓ 19.6°F 17 15 34.6 °F 40 31 ↓ 12.6°F 15 10 34.6 °F 41 32   23 20   52 40   30 25   50
12-07-18 33 ↓ 15.4°F 14 13 34.6 °F 36 30 ↓ 19.6°F 19 14 34.6 °F 40 31 12.6°F 15 11 34.6 °F 40 30   25 19   54
12-06-18 28 ↓ 18.2°F 14 12 31.5 °F 33 28 ↓ 15.4°F 18 12 34.6 °F 37 29 19.6°F 18 12 34.6 °F 42 30 12.6°F 16 10 34.6 °F 43
12-05-18 38 ↓ 23.9°F 24 20 ↑ 39.8 °F 34 24 ↓ 18.2°F 15 9 31.5 °F 34 27 15.4°F 17 8 34.6 °F 37 25 19.6°F 17 13 34.6 °F 41
12-04-18 29 ↓ 20.4°F 18 15 31.3 °F 42 36 ↓ 23.9°F 23 19 39.8 °F 35 24 18.2°F 16 7 31.5 °F 36 22 15.4°F 17 6 34.6 °F 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     50.0     33.3     40.0     0.0     50.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 14.2   2.0 20.6   4.9 11.9   1.9 22.2   4.3 11.3   2.0 24.3   4.9 9.8   2.5 24.9   5.7
Net Error 14.2   -1.5 -20.6   2.9 11.9   0.1 -22.2   2.4 11.3   0.0 -24.3   4.9 9.8   0.8 -24.9   5.7
Std Dev 6.9   1.5 8.8   2.8 8.1   1.4 14.1   3.0 10.4   1.7 21.1   4.3 9.8   2.5 24.9   5.7

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 20   23 39 ↓   50 23   23 41   51 27   28 39   43 21   24 41   47
12-09-18 13 12.6°F 14 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 39 19   21 39   48 23   27 37   44 25   28 38   40
12-08-18 15 19.6°F 19 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 41 10 12.6°F 16 32 34.6 °F 43 20   24 40   52 25   30 39   50
12-07-18 13 15.4°F 16 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 38 14 19.6°F 20 31 34.6 °F 42 11 12.6°F 16 30 34.6 °F 41 19   25 40   54
12-06-18 12 18.2°F 14 28 ↓ 31.5 °F 33 12 15.4°F 18 29 34.6 °F 37 12 19.6°F 18 30 34.6 °F 42 10 12.6°F 16 30 34.6 °F 43
12-05-18 20 ↑ 23.9°F 25 24 ↓ 39.8 °F 35 9 18.2°F 16 27 31.5 °F 35 8 15.4°F 17 25 34.6 °F 36 13 19.6°F 18 28 34.6 °F 42
12-04-18 15 20.4°F 19 36 ↓ 31.3 °F 41 19 ↑ 23.9°F 23 24 39.8 °F 34 7 18.2°F 16 22 31.5 °F 36 6 15.4°F 17 21 34.6 °F 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 5 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0
% Succ 16.7   83.3 16.7   16.7     40.0     0.0 25.0   50.0     25.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 3.8   1.6 5.6   5.0 5.1   1.9 6.4   5.5 7.0   2.2 7.1   4.9 6.2   2.2 8.3   6.1
Net Error -3.7   -0.5 -4.1   3.4 -5.1   0.7 -6.4   3.2 -7.0   0.3 -7.1   4.9 -6.2   1.1 -8.3   6.1
Std Dev 2.4   1.4 5.2   2.7 3.5   1.6 4.6   4.1 6.6   2.0 6.3   4.3 6.2   2.2 8.3   6.1

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 12-10-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-10-18 20   23 39 ↓   50 23   23 41   51 27   28 39   43 21   24 41   47
12-09-18 11 ↑ 12.6°F 14 33 ↓ 34.6 °F 39 19   21 39   48 23   27 37   44 25   28 38   40
12-08-18 15 ↑ 21.5°F 21 31 ↓ 34.6 °F 43 10 12.6°F 17 32 34.6 °F 44 20   26 40   53 25   27 39   48
12-07-18 15 ↑ 26.0°F 17 30 ↓ 34.6 °F 37 14 21.5°F 19 31 34.6 °F 40 11 12.6°F 16 30 34.6 °F 42 19   27 40   56
12-06-18 12 21.7°F 17 28 ↓ 31.5 °F 34 12 26.0°F 17 29 34.6 °F 36 12 21.5°F 21 30 34.6 °F 42 10 12.6°F 16 30 34.6 °F 40
12-05-18 20 ↑ 21.9°F 25 24 ↓ 39.8 °F 36 9 21.7°F 17 27 31.5 °F 36 8 26.0°F 19 25 34.6 °F 37 13 21.5°F 15 28 34.6 °F 38
12-04-18 15 29.8°F 22 36 ↓ 31.3 °F 45 19 ↑ 21.9°F 25 24 39.8 °F 36 7 21.7°F 17 22 31.5 °F 35 6 26.0°F 19 21 34.6 °F 33
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ 33.3   33.3 16.7   0.0     0.0     20.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 7.6   4.4 5.6   5.9 7.9   4.7 6.4   4.9 11.0   3.9 7.1   5.2 10.4   5.6 8.3   3.5
Net Error -7.6   -2.9 -4.1   4.6 -7.9   -1.7 -6.4   3.4 -11.0   -2.2 -7.1   5.2 -10.4   -3.4 -8.3   2.4
Std Dev 4.9   3.3 5.2   3.4 6.2   3.7 4.6   4.0 10.6   3.4 6.3   4.6 10.4   5.6 8.3   3.5

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.