Current WXSIM Forecast

Sunday, 19-Aug-2018 02:00 pm

This
afternoon
Rain likely
Rain likely
High: 70°
Tonight

Rain likely
Rain likely
Low: 66°
Monday

Rain likely
Rain likely
High: 70°
Monday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 61°
Tuesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 74°
Tuesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 57°
Wednesday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 76°
Wednesday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 60°
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 77°

Current NWS Forecast

Sun, 19-Aug-2018 1:59pm CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms

Hi 74 °F ↓
Tonight

Tonight: Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms

Lo 65 °F
Monday

Monday: Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms

Hi 76 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Partly Cloudy
Chance Showers And TStorms then Partly Cloudy

Lo 59 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny

Hi 79 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 57 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 80 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 61 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 83 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-19-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 67   72 80 ↓   77 65   66 77   68 59   58 79   75 57   59 81   76
08-18-18 65 74.4°F 67 88 92.8 °F 87 67   69 82   78 65   67 78   68 61   55 81   73
08-17-18 65 69.0°F 64 85 89.5 °F 86 64 74.4°F 65 88 92.8 °F 89 67   69 81   78 64   69 79   72
08-16-18 67 66.7°F 67 84 90.7 °F 82 64 69.0°F 66 86 89.5 °F 85 64 74.4°F 65 87 92.8 °F 87 67   70 81   83
08-15-18 65 68.4°F 65 86 84.7 °F 81 64 66.7°F 64 86 90.7 °F 88 64 69.0°F 66 85 89.5 °F 83 64 74.4°F 64 86 92.8 °F 85
08-14-18 68 67.7°F 70 80 ↓ 73.9 °F 74 65 68.4°F 67 85 84.7 °F 85 64 66.7°F 66 86 90.7 °F 88 63 69.0°F 69 86 89.5 °F 83
08-13-18 66 72.8°F 69 91 ↓ 92.9 °F 88 68 67.7°F 68 81 73.9 °F 72 65 68.4°F 66 84 84.7 °F 80 64 66.7°F 61 86 90.7 °F 82
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ 33.3   16.7 33.3   16.7 20.0   40.0 20.0   40.0     25.0 25.0   0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 4.0   3.7 4.2   4.5 4.4   3.4 4.1   2.6 5.4   3.9 3.9   4.9 6.4   5.4 5.0   7.7
Net Error -3.8   -2.8 -1.8   -4.4 -4.2   -3.2 -1.1   -2.5 -5.4   -3.9 -3.9   -4.9 -6.4   -5.4 -5.0   -7.7
Std Dev 3.5   2.7 2.5   3.2 3.9   3.5 2.6   1.9 5.3   4.3 3.5   4.3 6.4   5.4 5.0   7.7

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-19-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 67   76 77   66 65   68 76   58 59   75 79   58 57   76 80   63
08-18-18 65 92.8 °F 87 89 71.8°F 70 67   79 80   67 66   69 77   55 60   73 79   58
08-17-18 65 89.5 °F 86 85 66.6°F 64 64 92.8 °F 89 88 71.8°F 69 67   77 82   68 65   71 79   59
08-16-18 67 90.7 °F 82 83 64.6°F 64 63 89.5 °F 85 86 66.6°F 64 64 92.8 °F 88 87 71.8°F 69 67   83 82   70
08-15-18 65 84.7 °F 84 86 67.6°F 65 64 90.7 °F 88 86 64.6°F 67 64 89.5 °F 83 85 66.6°F 64 64 92.8 °F 85 86 71.8°F 68
08-14-18 68 73.9 °F 72 74 67.7°F 65 65 84.7 °F 84 86 67.6°F 64 64 90.7 °F 88 86 64.6°F 69 64 89.5 °F 83 85 66.6°F 63
08-13-18 66 ↑ 92.9 °F 89 91 ↓ 72.5°F 70 68 73.9 °F 74 81 67.7°F 66 65 84.7 °F 81 84 67.6°F 62 64 90.7 °F 81 86 64.6°F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ     33.3     33.3     40.0     20.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 21.4   4.1 16.2   2.1 21.5   2.4 17.7   2.6 25.2   4.4 17.9   3.9 27.0   8.0 18.0   2.9
Net Error -21.4   -4.1 16.2   -2.1 -21.5   -2.3 17.7   -1.7 -25.2   -4.4 17.9   -1.7 -27.0   -8.0 18.0   -2.0
Std Dev 11.2   3.1 7.9   1.1 14.4   1.9 11.4   1.7 21.9   3.8 15.5   3.4 27.0   8.0 18.0   2.9

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-19-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 77   73 65   65 76   66 59   56 79   74 57   59 80   76 61   60
08-18-18 89 92.8 °F 87 67 70.4°F 68 80   75 66   66 77   74 60   57 79   73 56   57
08-17-18 85 89.5 °F 83 64 65.7°F 63 88 92.8 °F 87 67 70.4°F 69 82   77 65   68 79   72 60   60
08-16-18 83 90.7 °F 82 63 64.0°F 63 86 89.5 °F 85 64 65.7°F 63 87 92.8 °F 86 67 70.4°F 68 82   77 63   66
08-15-18 <85 84.7 °F 81 65 65.8°F 66 85 90.7 °F 82 65 64.0°F 66 85 89.5 °F 83 65 65.7°F 64 85 92.8 °F 84 65 70.4°F 69
08-14-18 74 73.9 °F 73 65 67.2°F 66 86 84.7 °F 82 64 65.8°F 64 86 90.7 °F 87 64 64.0°F 69 85 89.5 °F 81 64 65.7°F 65
08-13-18 91 ↓ 92.9 °F 84 68 71.6°F 67 81 73.9 °F 71 65 67.2°F 65 84 84.7 °F 79 64 65.8°F 65 86 90.7 °F 80 65 64.0°F 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 3 3 1 0 3 3 1 0 3 2 0 0 2 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 50.0   50.0 20.0   0.0 60.0   60.0 25.0   0.0 75.0   50.0     0.0 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 17.1   5.8 2.1   2.0 4.5   4.9 2.0   2.0 3.9   5.7 1.5   2.5 5.7   9.3 2.7   1.7
Net Error -17.1   -5.8 -2.1   -2.0 -1.1   -4.9 -1.6   -1.2 -3.9   -5.7 -1.5   0.0 -5.7   -9.3 -2.0   0.3
Std Dev 30.5   3.4 1.2   1.3 2.9   3.6 1.5   1.3 3.5   4.9 1.6   2.1 5.7   9.3 2.7   1.7

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-19-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 77   75 65   64 76   66 59   56 79   74 57   59 80   75 61   60
08-18-18 89 92.8 °F 88 67 70.3°F 71 80   75 66   66 77   73 60   58 79   73 56   58
08-17-18 85 89.5 °F 86 64 65.7°F 66 88 92.8 °F 88 67 70.3°F 69 82   77 65   68 79   72 60   60
08-16-18 83 90.7 °F 87 63 64.0°F 67 86 89.5 °F 86 64 65.7°F 65 87 92.8 °F 87 67 70.3°F 69 82   78 63   66
08-15-18 <85 84.7 °F 79 65 65.8°F 65 85 90.7 °F 81 65 64.0°F 66 85 89.5 °F 83 65 65.7°F 65 85 92.8 °F 84 65 70.3°F 69
08-14-18 74 73.9 °F 75 65 67.3°F 68 86 84.7 °F 84 64 65.8°F 66 86 90.7 °F 88 64 64.0°F 69 85 89.5 °F 81 64 65.7°F 65
08-13-18 91 ↓ 92.9 °F 89 68 71.6°F 70 81 73.9 °F 73 65 67.3°F 66 84 84.7 °F 80 64 65.8°F 66 86 90.7 °F 80 65 64.0°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 3 5 1 2 3 5 1 0 3 3 0 0 2 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 50.0   83.3 20.0   40.0 60.0   100.0 25.0   0.0 75.0   75.0     0.0 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 17.1   3.8 2.1   1.2 4.5   3.9 2.0   1.1 3.9   4.9 1.5   1.8 5.7   9.3 2.7   2.0
Net Error -17.1   -3.4 -2.1   0.4 -1.1   -3.9 -1.6   -0.2 -3.9   -4.9 -1.5   0.8 -5.7   -9.3 -2.0   0.7
Std Dev 30.5   2.1 1.2   1.0 2.9   3.6 1.5   0.8 3.5   4.3 1.6   1.6 5.7   9.3 2.7   2.0

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-19-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 74 ↓   70 65   66 76   70 59   61 79   74 57   57 80   76 61   60
08-18-18 89 ↓ 92.8 °F 91 67 70.3°F 73 80   80 66   66 77   70 60   56 79   74 56   57
08-17-18 87 89.5 °F 88 64 65.7°F 69 88 92.8 °F 88 67 70.3°F 71 82   76 65   67 79   74 60   61
08-16-18 83 90.7 °F 89 63 64.0°F 69 86 89.5 °F 87 64 65.7°F 67 87 92.8 °F 89 67 70.3°F 69 82   75 63   70
08-15-18 82 84.7 °F 79 65 65.8°F 65 86 90.7 °F 81 65 64.0°F 66 85 89.5 °F 83 64 65.7°F 65 87 92.8 °F 84 66 70.3°F 69
08-14-18 74 73.9 °F 76 65 67.3°F 67 86 84.7 °F 86 64 65.8°F 66 86 90.7 °F 90 64 64.0°F 68 85 89.5 °F 86 64 65.7°F 66
08-13-18 91 ↓ 92.9 °F 94 68 71.6°F 70 81 73.9 °F 74 65 67.3°F 69 84 84.7 °F 81 64 65.8°F 65 86 90.7 °F 83 65 64.0°F 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 3 3 1 2 3 5 1 1 3 3 0 0 2 2
% Succ 33.3   66.7 50.0   50.0 20.0   40.0 60.0   100.0 25.0   25.0 75.0   75.0     0.0 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 3.1   2.3 2.1   2.3 4.3   3.7 2.0   1.2 3.9   3.7 1.7   1.7 5.0   6.7 2.3   1.5
Net Error -3.1   -1.3 -2.1   1.4 -0.9   -3.1 -1.6   1.2 -3.9   -3.7 -1.7   0.3 -5.0   -6.7 -1.7   0.7
Std Dev 2.6   1.7 1.2   1.8 2.7   3.6 1.5   0.9 3.5   3.2 1.7   1.5 5.0   6.7 2.3   1.5

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-18-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 89   74 67   78 80 ↓   66 65   68 77   56 59   74 79   57 57   76
08-17-18 87 65.7°F 67 65 89.5 °F 88 88   69 67   78 82   66 65   74 78   61 61   76
08-16-18 85 64.0°F 69 65 90.7 °F 88 85 65.7°F 68 64 89.5 °F 89 88   69 67   75 81   70 64   78
08-15-18 82 ↓ 65.8°F 68 67 84.7 °F 82 84 64.0°F 66 64 90.7 °F 85 86 65.7°F 65 64 89.5 °F 86 87   69 67   76
08-14-18 74 67.3°F 67 65 73.9 °F 86 86 65.8°F 66 64 84.7 °F 88 86 64.0°F 69 64 90.7 °F 85 85 65.7°F 65 64 89.5 °F 84
08-13-18 91 ↓ 71.6°F 68 68 92.9 °F 72 80 ↓ 67.3°F 68 65 73.9 °F 81 85 65.8°F 65 64 84.7 °F 83 86 64.0°F 67 63 90.7 °F 81
08-12-18 92 ↓ 68.9°F 71 66 92.9 °F 89 89 71.6°F 70 68 92.9 °F 75 81 67.3°F 65 65 73.9 °F 83 85 65.8°F 64 64 84.7 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1
% Succ     33.3     16.7     80.0     20.0     50.0     25.0     66.7     33.3
Ave Error 18.0   2.4 21.4   7.3 17.9   1.4 21.3   6.9 18.8   2.2 20.5   5.0 20.2   1.8 24.6   5.2
Net Error 18.0   1.1 -21.4   -3.3 17.9   0.7 -21.3   -2.7 18.8   0.3 -20.5   -0.5 20.2   0.2 -24.6   -5.0
Std Dev 8.9   1.8 10.6   7.5 11.4   1.1 13.8   5.5 16.3   2.0 17.9   4.4 20.2   1.8 24.6   5.2

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-18-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 67   72 80 ↓   77 65   65 77   69 59   58 79   76 57   58 81   78
08-17-18 65 65.7°F 70 88 89.5 °F 89 67   70 82   81 65   69 78   72 61   59 81   75
08-16-18 65 64.0°F 67 85 90.7 °F 87 64 65.7°F 66 88 89.5 °F 86 67   69 81   79 64   68 79   73
08-15-18 67 65.8°F 69 84 84.7 °F 83 64 64.0°F 67 86 90.7 °F 85 64 65.7°F 67 87 89.5 °F 86 67   70 81   82
08-14-18 65 67.3°F 67 86 73.9 °F 85 64 65.8°F 64 86 84.7 °F 87 64 64.0°F 69 85 90.7 °F 86 64 65.7°F 66 86 89.5 °F 85
08-13-18 68 71.6°F 69 80 ↓ 92.9 °F 72 65 67.3°F 67 85 73.9 °F 81 64 65.8°F 65 86 84.7 °F 85 63 64.0°F 70 86 90.7 °F 83
08-12-18 66 68.9°F 71 89 92.9 °F 89 68 71.6°F 69 81 92.9 °F 73 65 67.3°F 67 85 73.9 °F 83 64 65.8°F 68 86 84.7 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 2 2 3 3 2 0 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1
% Succ 50.0   16.7 33.3   33.3 60.0   60.0 40.0   0.0 75.0   75.0 25.0   25.0 100.0   33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 2.0   2.6 6.1   7.0 1.9   1.6 6.1   7.7 1.5   1.9 5.2   4.4 1.5   2.8 3.2   4.2
Net Error -1.2   1.6 -2.1   -3.3 -1.9   -0.3 -1.1   -3.9 -1.5   1.3 1.1   0.3 -1.5   2.8 -2.3   -4.0
Std Dev 1.3   1.6 5.3   7.5 1.5   1.3 4.9   5.8 1.3   1.6 4.7   3.8 1.5   2.8 3.2   4.2

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-18-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 67   71 80 ↓   77 65   65 77   68 59   58 79   75 57   59 81   77
08-17-18 65 75.8°F 68 88 89.5 °F 88 67   70 82   81 65   68 78   72 61   59 81   75
08-16-18 65 72.8°F 68 85 90.7 °F 87 64 75.8°F 67 88 89.5 °F 86 67   70 81   79 64   68 79   73
08-15-18 67 72.2°F 68 84 84.7 °F 82 64 72.8°F 66 86 90.7 °F 84 64 75.8°F 66 87 89.5 °F 86 67   70 81   82
08-14-18 65 70.7°F 67 86 73.9 °F 84 64 72.2°F 66 86 84.7 °F 88 64 72.8°F 69 85 90.7 °F 85 64 75.8°F 66 86 89.5 °F 85
08-13-18 68 69.8°F 69 80 ↓ 92.9 °F 73 65 70.7°F 68 85 73.9 °F 82 64 72.2°F 65 86 84.7 °F 85 63 72.8°F 70 86 90.7 °F 84
08-12-18 66 74.3°F 69 89 92.9 °F 90 68 69.8°F 68 81 92.9 °F 72 65 70.7°F 67 85 73.9 °F 83 64 72.2°F 68 86 84.7 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7 33.3   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 6.6   4.4 6.1   6.8 7.3   5.3 6.1   8.5 8.6   6.1 5.2   4.7 9.9   5.6 3.2   3.8
Net Error -6.6   -4.4 -2.1   -3.4 -7.3   -5.3 -1.1   -3.9 -8.6   -6.1 1.1   0.0 -9.9   -5.6 -2.3   -3.6
Std Dev 3.8   2.7 5.3   6.9 5.1   3.8 4.9   6.3 7.6   5.6 4.7   4.1 9.9   5.6 3.2   3.8

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.