Current WXSIM Forecast

Wednesday, 17-Oct-2018 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
High: 65°
Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 41°
Thursday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 65°
Thursday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 45°
Friday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 69°
Friday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 40°
Saturday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 57°
Saturday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 35°
Sunday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 63°

Current NWS Forecast

Wed, 17-Oct-2018 11:44am CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 64 °F ↓
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 38 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 63 °F ↓
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers

Lo 46 °F
Friday

Friday: Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny

Hi 67 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Clear
Clear

Lo 41 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 58 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Clear
Clear

Lo 33 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 60 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-17-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-17-18 36 ↑   38 59   64 38   39 60   65 46   42 66   67 40   39 59   58
10-16-18 33 40.4°F 34 62 ↓ 72.1 °F 62 36   37 57   62 38   37 61   62 45   45 64   72
10-15-18 25 ↑ 35.7°F 26 44 ↓ 47.0 °F 48 30 40.4°F 32 60 72.1 °F 62 36   33 58   60 38   35 60   62
10-14-18 36 ↑ 31.5°F 43 38 ↓ 51.1 °F 45 27 35.7°F 27 44 47.0 °F 48 29 40.4°F 30 58 72.1 °F 59 36   34 60   62
10-13-18 38 49.5°F 38 60 65.3 °F 63 37 ↑ 31.5°F 40 38 51.1 °F 41 26 35.7°F 30 44 47.0 °F 48 29 40.4°F 32 54 72.1 °F 59
10-12-18 37 ↑ 38.6°F 41 46 47.5 °F 51 37 49.5°F 37 58 65.3 °F 63 36 31.5°F 39 41 51.1 °F 40 27 35.7°F 30 43 47.0 °F 49
10-11-18 34 ↑ 40.3°F 32 50 56.7 °F 51 39 38.6°F 35 46 47.5 °F 45 38 49.5°F 36 56 65.3 °F 62 36 31.5°F 38 40 51.1 °F 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ 16.7   0.0 16.7   16.7 20.0   0.0 20.0   20.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 7.0   8.3 6.6   4.8 7.5   8.3 7.4   5.2 9.3   9.3 9.1   7.1 8.2   6.9 11.1   6.4
Net Error -5.5   -3.7 -6.6   -3.3 -5.1   -4.9 -7.4   -4.8 -7.0   -5.5 -9.1   -6.6 -5.2   -2.5 -11.1   -5.1
Std Dev 4.4   4.7 4.8   3.5 5.0   5.3 6.1   4.9 8.1   8.1 8.3   6.9 8.2   6.9 11.1   6.4

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-17-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-17-18 36   64 62 ↓   39 38   65 63   43 46   67 67   39 41   58 58   34
10-16-18 33 72.1 °F 64 63 37.6°F 38 37   63 59   37 37   62 61   46 46   72 66   39
10-15-18 25 ↑ 47.0 °F 48 45 ↓ 34.2°F 32 30 72.1 °F 62 61 37.6°F 34 37   60 58   35 38   62 61   42
10-10-18 42 ↑ 51.1 °F 51 48 31.5°F 34 32 47.0 °F 54 50 34.2°F 37 38 72.1 °F 50 46 37.6°F 38 37   60 55   35
10-09-18 51 52.8 °F 53 57 44.3°F 47 42 ↑ 51.1 °F 52 47 31.5°F 36 36 47.0 °F 51 52 34.2°F 37 37 72.1 °F 56 50 37.6°F 38
10-08-18 51 58.5 °F 62 63 51.9°F 60 53 ↑ 52.8 °F 67 56 44.3°F 50 42 51.1 °F 56 51 31.5°F 44 35 47.0 °F 57 50 34.2°F 43
10-07-18 44 52.1 °F 51 52 51.2°F 49 52 ↑ 58.5 °F 65 70 51.9°F 63 53 52.8 °F 69 59 44.3°F 56 44 51.1 °F 58 52 31.5°F 39
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 4 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ 16.7   66.7 16.7   16.7 20.0   20.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 14.6   2.3 12.9   3.0 14.6   7.7 16.9   5.5 13.6   11.8 15.1   6.9 18.1   11.0 16.2   5.6
Net Error -14.6   -0.8 12.9   1.6 -14.5   3.7 16.9   4.1 -13.5   0.8 15.1   6.9 -18.1   0.3 16.2   5.6
Std Dev 13.6   2.9 7.6   2.7 15.6   5.9 11.1   3.8 15.6   11.4 13.5   6.8 18.1   11.0 16.2   5.6

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-17-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-17-18 62 ↓   62 38   39 63 ↓   65 46   44 67   69 41   40 58   57 33   35
10-16-18 63 72.1 °F 62 37 35.2°F 39 59   61 37   37 61   62 46   42 66   65 40   39
10-15-18 45 ↓ 47.0 °F 48 30 33.3°F 31 61 72.1 °F 62 37 35.2°F 37 58   62 38   38 61   65 45   45
10-14-18 38 ↓ 51.1 °F 39 27 27.3°F 26 44 ↓ 47.0 °F 46 29 33.3°F 30 58 72.1 °F 59 36 35.2°F 34 59   61 39   38
10-09-18 57 65.3 °F 59 42 ↑ 37.4°F 48 47 51.1 °F 52 36 27.3°F 36 52 47.0 °F 51 37 33.3°F 36 50 72.1 °F 49 38 35.2°F 41
10-08-18 63 58.5 °F 62 53 ↑ 51.7°F 60 56 ↓ 65.3 °F 67 42 37.4°F 50 51 51.1 °F 56 35 27.3°F 44 50 47.0 °F 57 37 33.3°F 43
10-07-18 52 52.1 °F 50 52 ↑ 51.3°F 48 70 58.5 °F 66 53 51.7°F 63 59 65.3 °F 69 44 37.4°F 53 52 51.1 °F 55 36 27.3°F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 4 1 0 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   16.7 66.7   16.7     60.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 6.2   5.9 2.0   4.9 7.8   4.2 4.1   7.5 6.4   6.4 4.7   9.1 8.7   12.3 5.1   9.4
Net Error -4.7   -4.4 0.8   2.6 -3.2   -0.2 2.4   6.2 -3.9   -0.1 4.7   8.5 -6.1   -3.1 5.1   9.4
Std Dev 4.5   4.5 1.6   3.9 5.8   4.3 3.5   5.8 6.7   6.5 4.5   8.8 8.7   12.3 5.1   9.4

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-17-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-17-18 62 ↓   65 38   41 63 ↓   65 46   45 67   69 41   40 58   57 33   35
10-16-18 63 72.1 °F 62 37 35.2°F 37 59   60 37   36 61   62 46   41 66   65 40   38
10-15-18 45 ↓ 47.0 °F 44 30 33.3°F 26 61 72.1 °F 61 37 35.2°F 34 58   59 38   35 61   63 45   43
10-14-18 38 ↓ 51.1 °F 37 27 27.3°F 25 44 ↓ 47.0 °F 47 29 33.3°F 29 58 72.1 °F 61 36 35.2°F 34 59   61 39   37
10-09-18 53 65.3 °F 53 42 ↑ 36.0°F 47 47 51.1 °F 55 36 27.3°F 45 52 47.0 °F 53 37 33.3°F 39 50 72.1 °F 50 38 35.2°F 41
10-08-18 63 58.5 °F 60 53 ↑ 51.0°F 58 56 ↓ 65.3 °F 65 42 36.0°F 54 51 51.1 °F 56 35 27.3°F 37 50 47.0 °F 50 37 33.3°F 37
10-07-18 52 52.1 °F 52 52 ↑ 51.3°F 48 70 58.5 °F 64 53 51.0°F 62 59 65.3 °F 67 44 36.0°F 52 52 51.1 °F 54 36 27.3°F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 4 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 66.7   16.7     40.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 6.9   6.9 2.4   5.5 7.8   4.2 4.6   10.4 6.4   5.9 5.1   8.2 8.7   9.3 5.1   7.4
Net Error -5.4   -6.4 1.2   1.2 -3.2   -0.4 2.8   8.2 -3.9   0.4 5.1   7.6 -6.1   -5.4 5.1   7.4
Std Dev 5.0   5.5 2.0   3.9 5.8   4.5 3.6   8.9 6.7   5.7 4.9   7.9 8.7   9.3 5.1   7.4

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-16-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-16-18 63 ↓   66 37   41 59   63 37   39 61   63 46   45 66   71 40   40
10-15-18 45 ↓ 47.0 °F 47 30 33.3°F 29 61   62 37   38 58   62 38   37 61   62 45   43
10-14-18 38 ↓ 51.1 °F 36 27 27.3°F 26 44 ↓ 47.0 °F 46 29 33.3°F 30 58   59 36   34 59   61 39   37
10-09-18 53 65.3 °F 58 42 ↑ 36.0°F 49 47 51.1 °F 56 36 27.3°F 46 52 47.0 °F 55 37 33.3°F 40 50   51 38   42
10-08-18 64 58.5 °F 61 51 ↑ 51.0°F 54 56 ↓ 65.3 °F 57 42 36.0°F 48 51 51.1 °F 52 35 27.3°F 34 50 47.0 °F 49 37 33.3°F 38
10-07-18 52 52.1 °F 52 52 ↑ 51.3°F 49 70 58.5 °F 64 53 51.0°F 63 59 65.3 °F 69 44 36.0°F 51 52 51.1 °F 54 36 27.3°F 38
10-06-18 52 50.7 °F 51 44 44.1°F 39 53 52.1 °F 47 50 51.3°F 44 69 58.5 °F 67 58 51.0°F 64 68 65.3 °F 68 52 36.0°F 48
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 4 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0 66.7   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 5.7   4.2 1.7   4.8 5.8   5.0 4.5   10.7 5.5   5.3 6.6   10.4 2.2   2.5 9.5   9.1
Net Error -3.5   -3.3 0.5   0.5 -0.8   -0.8 2.2   6.4 2.3   5.3 6.6   10.4 2.2   2.5 9.5   9.1
Std Dev 5.4   5.5 2.2   4.3 4.2   3.9 3.5   8.3 4.7   4.8 5.9   9.1 2.2   2.5 9.5   9.1

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-16-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-16-18 67 ↓   46 36 ↑   68 59   42 38   67 60   48 46   73 66   41 40   60
10-15-18 44 ↓ 33.3°F 34 33 47.0 °F 62 62 ↓   37 36   61 57   37 38   62 61   43 45   68
10-14-18 38 ↓ 27.3°F 27 25 51.1 °F 47 44 ↓ 33.3°F 30 30 47.0 °F 59 60   34 36   61 58   36 38   63
10-09-18 53 36.0°F 47 42 ↑ 65.3 °F 54 47 27.3°F 36 35 51.1 °F 51 50 33.3°F 36 36 47.0 °F 50 48   40 37   65
10-08-18 64 51.0°F 61 51 ↑ 58.5 °F 54 51 ↓ 36.0°F 56 42 65.3 °F 47 49 27.3°F 51 34 51.1 °F 34 49 33.3°F 51 37 47.0 °F 38
10-07-18 52 52.1 °F 49 51 ↑ 51.3°F 65 67 ↓ 51.0°F 64 55 58.5 °F 70 57 36.0°F 51 43 65.3 °F 54 51 27.3°F 38 35 51.1 °F 53
10-06-18 51 ↓ 44.1°F 47 44 50.7 °F 55 49 52.1 °F 50 49 51.3°F 67 71 51.0°F 64 57 58.5 °F 69 62 36.0°F 49 46 65.3 °F 51
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   0.0     0.0     20.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 9.7   4.7 13.0   8.8 12.9   9.4 12.4   11.5 19.9   13.6 13.0   10.5 21.8   13.8 15.1   8.4
Net Error 9.7   3.5 -13.0   2.2 11.7   7.3 -12.4   4.2 19.9   13.6 -13.0   -3.7 21.8   13.8 -15.1   -7.1
Std Dev 6.5   4.6 10.3   5.6 8.8   8.1 9.6   9.4 17.3   13.0 11.3   9.8 21.8   13.8 15.1   8.4

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-16-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-16-18 36 ↑   44 59   66 38   41 60   65 46   46 66   70 40   40 59   60
10-15-18 33 33.3°F 33 62 ↓ 47.0 °F 62 36   36 57   61 38   36 61   61 45   42 64   68
10-14-18 25 27.3°F 26 44 ↓ 51.1 °F 47 30 33.3°F 29 60 47.0 °F 63 36   37 58   63 38   37 60   62
10-09-18 42 ↑ 36.0°F 45 47 65.3 °F 53 35 27.3°F 36 50 51.1 °F 52 36 33.3°F 36 48 47.0 °F 50 37   38 56   65
10-08-18 51 ↑ 51.0°F 51 51 ↓ 58.5 °F 57 42 36.0°F 48 49 65.3 °F 52 34 27.3°F 34 49 51.1 °F 50 37 33.3°F 38 50 47.0 °F 56
10-07-18 51 ↑ 51.3°F 48 67 ↓ 52.1 °F 64 55 ↑ 51.0°F 63 57 58.5 °F 69 43 36.0°F 51 51 65.3 °F 56 35 27.3°F 37 50 51.1 °F 54
10-06-18 44 44.1°F 46 49 50.7 °F 54 49 ↑ 51.3°F 50 71 52.1 °F 67 57 51.0°F 65 62 58.5 °F 70 46 36.0°F 49 54 65.3 °F 50
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
% Succ 66.7   66.7 16.7   16.7     20.0 40.0   20.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 1.5   2.6 10.8   8.0 4.7   7.7 10.2   11.1 5.6   9.6 5.2   6.2 7.1   9.1 5.1   9.1
Net Error 0.5   1.0 -0.8   2.1 2.4   5.4 2.6   5.8 5.6   9.6 -3.0   1.0 7.1   9.1 -3.1   -1.1
Std Dev 2.2   3.2 6.2   5.8 3.4   5.5 8.2   8.7 5.1   9.0 5.0   5.6 7.1   9.1 5.1   9.1

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-16-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-16-18 36 ↑   41 59   65 38   40 60   64 46   45 66   69 40   40 59   60
10-15-18 33 45.6°F 33 62 ↓ 47.0 °F 61 36   36 57   61 38   36 61   61 45   42 64   68
10-14-18 25 ↑ 36.5°F 26 44 ↓ 51.1 °F 46 30 45.6°F 30 60 47.0 °F 63 36   37 58   63 38   37 60   62
10-09-18 42 ↑ 32.0°F 45 47 65.3 °F 52 35 36.5°F 38 50 51.1 °F 54 36 45.6°F 37 48 47.0 °F 50 37   38 56   64
10-08-18 51 ↑ 46.8°F 51 51 ↓ 58.5 °F 55 42 32.0°F 45 49 65.3 °F 52 34 36.5°F 36 49 51.1 °F 53 37 45.6°F 38 50 47.0 °F 60
10-07-18 51 ↑ 51.9°F 49 67 ↓ 52.1 °F 62 55 ↑ 46.8°F 61 57 58.5 °F 69 43 32.0°F 52 51 65.3 °F 57 35 36.5°F 37 50 51.1 °F 54
10-06-18 44 51.2°F 45 49 50.7 °F 52 49 ↑ 51.9°F 49 71 52.1 °F 67 57 46.8°F 65 62 58.5 °F 69 46 32.0°F 49 54 65.3 °F 50
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0 16.7   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   0.0     25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 7.7   8.2 10.8   7.9 7.6   9.4 10.2   11.5 8.3   11.8 5.2   5.9 8.0   8.4 5.1   10.4
Net Error -3.0   -2.5 -0.8   0.6 -0.4   2.0 2.6   6.2 2.3   7.3 -3.0   1.8 1.3   3.3 -3.1   0.2
Std Dev 5.2   5.2 6.2   5.2 6.7   7.6 8.2   8.5 7.2   10.4 5.0   5.3 8.0   8.4 5.1   10.4

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.