Current WXSIM Forecast

Tuesday, 19-Feb-2019 02:00 am

Rest of
tonight
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 7°
Tuesday

Snow
Cold!
Snow
Cold!
High: 23°
Tuesday
night
Snow
Cold!
Snow
Cold!
Low: 16°
Wednesday

Snow
Cold!
Snow
Cold!
High: 26°
Wednesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 11°
Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 33°
Thursday
night
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Low: 19°
Friday

Rain and Snow
Rain and Snow
High: 40°
Friday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 36°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 19-Feb-2019 3:35am CST

Overnight

Overnight: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy

Lo 5 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely
Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely

Hi 23 °F ↓
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Heavy Snow
Heavy Snow

Lo 17 °F ↑
Wednesday

Wednesday: Chance Light Snow then Chance Snow Showers
Chance Light Snow then Chance Snow Showers

Hi 28 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 9 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 31 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Snow
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Snow

Lo 20 °F
Friday

Friday: Mostly Cloudy then Chance Light Snow
Mostly Cloudy then Chance Light Snow

Hi 35 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Chance Rain And Snow
Chance Rain And Snow

Lo 27 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-19-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-19-19 5   7 23   23 18 ↑   16 30   26 9   11 31   33 19   19 35   40
02-18-19 8 11.6°F 8 20 ↓ 27.0 °F 22 6   8 22   23 15   16 28   25 6   13 27   36
02-17-19 12 ↑ 13.5°F 14 24 27.0 °F 22 10 11.6°F 6 22 27.0 °F 23 6   8 19   18 11   14 24   29
02-16-19 0 17.1°F 6 20 19.5 °F 36 13 13.5°F 18 25 27.0 °F 22 10 11.6°F 8 22 27.0 °F 21 7   7 19   13
02-15-19 7 9.1°F 9 15 15.2 °F 16 2 17.1°F 5 21 19.5 °F 30 14 13.5°F 18 25 27.0 °F 20 8 11.6°F 8 20 27.0 °F 18
02-14-19 29 10.2°F 33 34 ↓ 41.9 °F 44 8 9.1°F 16 16 15.2 °F 20 6 17.1°F 9 21 19.5 °F 35 14 13.5°F 24 23 27.0 °F 30
02-13-19 13 39.2°F 14 47 ↓ 41.1 °F 51 27 10.2°F 32 34 41.9 °F 44 9 9.1°F 17 17 15.2 °F 22 6 17.1°F 12 19 19.5 °F 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 33.3   16.7 60.0   0.0 60.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 11.6   10.6 4.1   6.6 7.0   10.2 3.4   5.3 3.3   6.0 2.6   8.8 5.1   6.4 3.8   6.5
Net Error -5.3   -2.8 -2.0   3.2 -0.3   3.1 -2.5   1.7 -3.1   0.2 -0.9   2.3 -4.7   0.6 -3.8   0.5
Std Dev 8.9   9.3 3.4   5.8 6.9   7.3 2.5   4.1 3.0   5.4 2.5   7.8 5.1   6.4 3.8   6.5

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 8 ↑   22 22 ↓   7 7   24 21   19 18   25 28   13 8   36 28   26
02-17-19 14 27.0 °F 22 24 ↓ 11.6°F 8 11   25 21   8 6   18 20   13 13   29 25   13
02-16-19 0 ↑ 19.5 °F 32 20 17.1°F 16 13 ↑ 27.0 °F 23 24 11.6°F 10 11   20 21   7 6   12 17   9
02-15-19 7 15.2 °F 16 12 7.8°F 4 6 19.5 °F 31 20 17.1°F 17 13 27.0 °F 20 24 11.6°F 7 10   22 20   6
02-14-19 32 ↑ 41.9 °F 44 32 ↓ 9.2°F 16 8 15.2 °F 20 15 7.8°F 12 4 19.5 °F 27 20 17.1°F 20 13 27.0 °F 23 23 11.6°F 8
02-13-19 13 41.1 °F 49 45 ↓ 32.8°F 29 27 41.9 °F 46 34 9.2°F 18 9 15.2 °F 21 17 7.8°F 8 6 19.5 °F 31 19 17.1°F 18
02-12-19 19 ↑ 34.7 °F 39 33 ↓ 15.1°F 16 14 41.1 °F 54 53 32.8°F 32 24 41.9 °F 38 33 9.2°F 13 10 15.2 °F 21 19 7.8°F 15
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
% Succ     16.7     33.3     0.0     60.0     0.0     25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 15.7   5.4 12.1   3.3 15.3   7.5 13.5   3.1 13.4   6.1 12.1   2.9 10.9   7.1 8.2   3.9
Net Error -15.7   3.8 12.1   -0.8 -15.3   5.9 13.5   2.1 -13.4   0.6 12.1   0.6 -10.9   4.4 8.2   1.5
Std Dev 9.2   4.4 8.2   2.2 10.4   5.4 10.2   2.5 11.6   5.3 10.5   2.6 10.9   7.1 8.2   3.9

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 22 ↓   22 7   8 21   22 18   16 28   25 8   11 28   36 19   25
02-17-19 24 ↓ 27.0 °F 22 11 11.6°F 8 21 ↓   25 6   8 20   18 13   13 25   29 9   13
02-16-19 20 19.5 °F 33 13 ↑ 17.1°F 16 24 27.0 °F 23 11 11.6°F 9 21   19 6   7 17   12 11   9
02-15-19 12 15.2 °F 17 6 5.9°F 4 20 ↓ 19.5 °F 33 13 17.1°F 18 24 27.0 °F 21 10 11.6°F 8 20   24 5   7
02-14-19 32 ↓ 41.9 °F 47 8 9.1°F 21 15 15.2 °F 24 4 5.9°F 13 20 19.5 °F 27 13 17.1°F 19 23 27.0 °F 22 9 11.6°F 8
02-13-19 45 ↓ 41.1 °F 46 27 29.7°F 30 34 ↓ 41.9 °F 46 9 9.1°F 18 17 15.2 °F 21 6 5.9°F 8 19 19.5 °F 30 14 17.1°F 18
02-12-19 33 ↓ 34.7 °F 39 14 15.1°F 16 53 ↓ 41.1 °F 54 24 29.7°F 32 33 41.9 °F 38 10 9.1°F 13 19 15.2 °F 21 6 5.9°F 15
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 4 4 2 0 3 1 2 0 3 1 1 0 1 1
% Succ 33.3   16.7 66.7   66.7 40.0   0.0 60.0   20.0 50.0   0.0 75.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 3.7   5.8 1.6   3.3 4.7   8.7 2.5   4.4 3.6   5.8 1.7   2.9 2.8   7.1 1.9   4.5
Net Error -2.2   4.1 -1.6   1.1 0.3   7.1 -2.5   3.3 -2.4   0.9 -1.2   1.1 -0.2   3.8 -1.9   2.1
Std Dev 3.2   4.3 1.5   4.1 4.1   6.2 1.9   3.5 3.1   5.0 1.5   2.5 2.8   7.1 1.9   4.5

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 22 ↓   21 7   7 21   22 18   16 28   24 8   13 28   36 19   22
02-17-19 24 ↓ 27.0 °F 25 11 11.7°F 8 21 ↓   20 6   5 20   19 13   15 25   25 9   7
02-16-19 20 19.5 °F 28 13 ↑ 17.1°F 15 24 27.0 °F 21 11 11.7°F 9 21   24 6   7 17   16 11   13
02-15-19 12 15.2 °F 15 6 5.9°F 4 20 ↓ 19.5 °F 32 13 17.1°F 17 24 27.0 °F 21 10 11.7°F 9 20   24 5   9
02-14-19 35 ↓ 41.9 °F 36 8 9.1°F 13 15 15.2 °F 16 4 5.9°F 7 20 19.5 °F 30 13 17.1°F 17 23 27.0 °F 21 9 11.7°F 8
02-13-19 45 ↓ 41.1 °F 46 27 29.7°F 32 34 ↓ 41.9 °F 46 9 9.1°F 16 17 15.2 °F 19 6 5.9°F 9 19 19.5 °F 24 14 17.1°F 16
02-12-19 33 ↓ 34.7 °F 30 14 15.1°F 13 53 ↓ 41.1 °F 54 24 29.7°F 35 33 41.9 °F 45 10 9.1°F 14 19 15.2 °F 25 6 5.9°F 14
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 4 1 2 1 3 2 2 0 3 1 1 0 1 1
% Succ 33.3   33.3 66.7   16.7 40.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 50.0   0.0 75.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 3.2   4.4 1.6   2.7 4.7   7.3 2.5   3.2 3.6   5.9 1.7   2.7 2.8   6.8 2.0   4.3
Net Error -1.7   0.1 -1.6   -0.6 0.3   4.9 -2.5   2.1 -2.4   2.9 -1.2   1.3 -0.2   2.8 -1.9   1.1
Std Dev 2.3   3.2 1.5   1.3 4.1   5.9 1.9   2.7 3.1   5.1 1.5   2.3 2.8   6.8 2.0   4.3

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 22 ↓   28 7   9 21   23 18   18 28   24 8   13 28   36 19   22
02-17-19 24 ↓ 27.0 °F 27 11 11.7°F 8 21 ↓   22 6   5 20   20 13   18 25   26 9   8
02-16-19 20 19.5 °F 21 13 ↑ 17.1°F 13 24 27.0 °F 20 10 11.7°F 9 22   25 6   7 19   17 11   14
02-15-19 12 15.2 °F 17 6 5.9°F 6 20 ↓ 19.5 °F 36 13 17.1°F 19 24 27.0 °F 22 10 11.7°F 9 20   26 5   10
02-14-19 35 ↓ 41.9 °F 30 8 9.1°F 14 15 15.2 °F 17 4 5.9°F 7 20 19.5 °F 32 13 17.1°F 19 23 27.0 °F 21 9 11.7°F 8
02-13-19 43 ↓ 41.1 °F 45 27 29.7°F 32 34 ↓ 41.9 °F 46 9 9.1°F 16 17 15.2 °F 19 6 5.9°F 9 19 19.5 °F 24 14 17.1°F 17
02-12-19 33 ↓ 34.7 °F 33 14 15.1°F 13 53 ↓ 41.1 °F 54 24 29.7°F 35 33 41.9 °F 46 10 9.1°F 14 19 15.2 °F 25 6 5.9°F 14
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 4 1 2 1 3 2 2 0 3 1 1 0 1 1
% Succ 50.0   66.7 66.7   16.7 40.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 50.0   0.0 75.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 2.9   3.5 1.6   2.9 4.7   8.5 2.7   3.6 3.6   6.4 1.7   3.2 2.8   6.8 2.0   4.0
Net Error -2.1   -1.1 -1.6   -0.4 0.3   5.7 -2.7   2.5 -2.4   3.9 -1.2   1.8 -0.2   2.8 -1.9   1.4
Std Dev 2.3   4.1 1.5   1.9 4.1   7.1 1.9   2.7 3.1   5.5 1.5   2.7 2.8   6.8 2.0   4.0

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 22 ↓   7 4   23 23   18 18   25 30   12 9   36 31   23 19   39
02-17-19 24 ↓ 11.7°F 27 9 27.0 °F 8 20 ↓   22 6   5 22   20 15   18 28   26 6   8
02-16-19 20 19.5 °F 13 12 ↑ 17.1°F 21 24 11.7°F 11 10 27.0 °F 23 22   7 6   18 19   14 11   28
02-15-19 12 5.9°F 19 0 15.2 °F 8 20 19.5 °F 33 13 17.1°F 17 25 11.7°F 23 10 27.0 °F 10 22   22 7   10
02-14-19 35 ↓ 41.9 °F 11 7 9.1°F 15 15 5.9°F 5 2 15.2 °F 28 21 19.5 °F 16 14 17.1°F 19 25 11.7°F 8 8 27.0 °F 18
02-13-19 42 29.7°F 31 29 41.1 °F 47 34 ↓ 41.9 °F 18 8 9.1°F 20 16 5.9°F 12 6 15.2 °F 25 21 19.5 °F 17 14 17.1°F 20
02-12-19 31 ↓ 15.1°F 16 13 34.7 °F 50 48 ↓ 29.7°F 34 28 41.1 °F 47 35 41.9 °F 16 9 9.1°F 24 19 5.9°F 13 6 15.2 °F 21
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3     0.0 20.0   40.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 9.0   11.3 12.4   9.5 9.6   8.7 9.7   6.7 8.0   11.7 7.4   10.9 9.3   4.4 10.4   5.9
Net Error 6.7   -1.1 -12.4   0.8 6.5   -1.5 -9.7   5.1 4.5   -3.0 -7.4   2.4 9.3   0.3 -10.4   -0.1
Std Dev 5.6   10.4 7.6   6.4 7.4   7.7 7.6   6.0 7.4   10.1 8.0   9.9 9.3   4.4 10.4   5.9

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 4   6 23   23 18 ↑   16 30   25 9   12 31   36 19   23 35   39
02-17-19 9 11.6°F 9 20 ↓ 27.0 °F 22 6   6 22   21 15   15 28   23 6   9 27   37
02-16-19 12 ↑ 17.1°F 14 24 19.5 °F 23 10 11.6°F 12 22 27.0 °F 25 6   8 19   19 11   15 24   30
02-15-19 0 5.9°F 6 20 15.2 °F 36 13 17.1°F 19 25 19.5 °F 22 10 11.6°F 9 22 27.0 °F 25 7   8 19   12
02-14-19 7 9.1°F 12 15 41.9 °F 16 2 5.9°F 6 21 15.2 °F 30 14 17.1°F 18 25 19.5 °F 20 8 11.6°F 8 20 27.0 °F 19
02-13-19 29 29.7°F 30 34 ↓ 41.1 °F 46 8 9.1°F 18 16 41.9 °F 20 6 5.9°F 13 21 15.2 °F 26 14 17.1°F 17 23 19.5 °F 21
02-12-19 13 15.1°F 17 48 ↓ 34.7 °F 51 28 29.7°F 34 35 41.1 °F 47 9 9.1°F 16 19 41.9 °F 24 6 5.9°F 13 19 15.2 °F 21
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 0 0 3 3 0 1 3 1 0 2 1 1 0 1
% Succ 16.7   50.0     0.0 60.0   60.0     20.0 75.0   25.0     50.0 33.3   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 3.1   1.8 10.6   12.7 2.5   3.1 9.7   9.4 1.2   4.4 9.8   7.8 2.3   3.6 4.8   5.1
Net Error -3.1   -0.1 -3.1   2.4 -2.5   3.1 -5.1   -0.1 -1.2   3.1 -4.2   -2.2 -2.2   1.1 0.1   -0.2
Std Dev 2.2   1.4 8.9   10.1 1.9   2.7 6.9   7.9 1.1   3.9 8.8   7.4 2.3   3.6 4.8   5.1

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-18-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 4   7 23   22 18 ↑   16 30   26 9   10 31   33 19   19 35   40
02-17-19 8 11.6°F 7 20 ↓ 27.0 °F 21 6   7 22   22 15   16 28   25 6   13 27   36
02-16-19 12 ↑ 16.0°F 14 24 19.5 °F 24 10 11.6°F 13 22 27.0 °F 27 6   11 19   17 11   13 24   29
02-15-19 0 17.1°F 7 20 15.2 °F 34 13 16.0°F 18 25 19.5 °F 22 10 11.6°F 9 22 27.0 °F 22 7   8 19   13
02-14-19 7 11.7°F 9 15 41.9 °F 15 2 17.1°F 4 21 15.2 °F 28 14 16.0°F 16 25 19.5 °F 20 8 11.6°F 10 20 27.0 °F 20
02-13-19 29 11.7°F 32 34 ↓ 41.1 °F 44 8 11.7°F 16 16 41.9 °F 19 6 17.1°F 9 21 15.2 °F 34 14 16.0°F 23 23 19.5 °F 29
02-12-19 13 39.2°F 17 48 ↓ 34.7 °F 52 28 11.7°F 32 35 41.1 °F 44 9 11.7°F 16 19 41.9 °F 21 6 17.1°F 12 19 15.2 °F 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     0.0 20.0   40.0     20.0 50.0   25.0     25.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 12.2   10.3 10.6   12.7 7.9   8.2 9.7   8.2 4.4   3.8 9.8   11.3 5.6   4.6 4.8   9.4
Net Error -6.4   -3.6 -3.1   1.8 -1.4   3.0 -5.1   -0.9 -4.4   -1.6 -4.2   -1.7 -5.6   0.1 0.1   4.8
Std Dev 8.1   7.8 8.9   10.1 7.0   7.0 6.9   7.2 4.0   3.3 8.8   10.3 5.6   4.6 4.8   9.4

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.