Current WXSIM Forecast

Friday, 19-Jan-2018 05:00 am

Today

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 62°
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 28°
Saturday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 61°
Saturday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 34°
Sunday

Rain Sleet
Rain Sleet
High: 39°
Sunday
night
Freezing Rain
Cold!
Freezing Rain
Cold!
Low: 27°
Monday

Snow
Snow
High: 28°
Monday
night
Fog late
Cold!
Fog late
Cold!
Low: 13°
Tuesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 35°

Current NWS Forecast

Fri, 19-Jan-2018 6:06am CST

Today

Today: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 49 °F ↓
Tonight

Tonight: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 24 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 42 °F ↓
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Chance Freezing Drizzle
Mostly Cloudy then Chance Freezing Drizzle

Lo 27 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Drizzle Likely then Light Rain Likely
Drizzle Likely then Light Rain Likely

Hi 39 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Slight Chance Freezing Rain
Slight Chance Freezing Rain

Lo 29 °F
Monday

Monday: Light Snow Likely
Light Snow Likely

Hi 35 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Chance Light Snow then Partly Cloudy
Chance Light Snow then Partly Cloudy

Lo 19 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 36 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 01-19-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-19-18 26   31 49 ↓   63 24   30 43   60 29   37 41   43 27   26 34   27
01-18-18 12 ↑ 34.2°F 18 43 ↓ 41.8 °F 52 23   29 49   63 24   25 43   58 30   42 42   49
01-17-18 -3 21.5°F 3 31 ↓ 30.9 °F 34 13 34.2°F 19 44 41.8 °F 54 24   25 49   62 27   25 44   55
01-16-18 -6 ↑ 4.3°F -6 10 ↓ 18.4 °F 13 -3 21.5°F 3 27 30.9 °F 36 14 34.2°F 16 42 41.8 °F 57 26   31 48   69
01-15-18 5 ↑ -0.1°F 10 7 ↓ 24.4 °F 12 -6 4.3°F -5 9 18.4 °F 13 -4 21.5°F 1 24 30.9 °F 33 14 34.2°F 17 39 41.8 °F 53
01-14-18 12 ↑ 17.2°F 15 34 ↓ 34.5 °F 34 7 ↑ -0.1°F 13 9 24.4 °F 15 -7 4.3°F -2 9 18.4 °F 16 -5 21.5°F 1 23 30.9 °F 33
01-13-18 2 14.4°F 6 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 20 10 ↑ 17.2°F 14 33 34.5 °F 34 11 -0.1°F 16 11 24.4 °F 19 -6 4.3°F -1 10 18.4 °F 19
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ     0.0 50.0   16.7     0.0 20.0   20.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 13.3   11.0 5.0   5.9 14.1   11.9 6.5   6.5 17.0   15.3 7.5   6.3 19.0   14.3 6.4   4.6
Net Error -11.6   -7.6 -4.6   -0.2 -11.2   -6.6 -5.6   0.4 -11.5   -7.2 -7.4   2.4 -19.0   -14.3 -6.4   4.6
Std Dev 9.3   6.9 6.4   4.7 10.7   8.3 4.8   4.9 14.8   13.3 7.4   7.0 19.0   14.3 6.4   4.6

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 01-19-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-19-18 28   62 49 ↓   28 24   61 42   34 27   39 39   27 29   28 35   13
01-18-18 12 ↑ 41.8 °F 51 43 ↓ 34.2°F 29 23   64 49   27 24   61 43   39 30   42 42   22
01-17-18 3 30.9 °F 34 31 ↓ 18.6°F 19 11 41.8 °F 54 43 34.2°F 28 24   62 53   28 26   56 45   39
01-16-18 -6 ↑ 18.4 °F 15 10 ↓ 4.3°F 2 -4 ↑ 30.9 °F 34 28 18.6°F 14 13 41.8 °F 58 43 34.2°F 30 25   70 49   37
01-15-18 5 ↑ 24.4 °F 10 7 ↓ -0.1°F -5 -6 18.4 °F 13 9 4.3°F 1 -4 30.9 °F 33 26 18.6°F 16 14 41.8 °F 52 41 34.2°F 25
01-14-18 12 ↑ 34.5 °F 38 30 7.8°F 13 6 ↑ 24.4 °F 15 8 -0.1°F -2 -6 18.4 °F 17 9 4.3°F 3 -5 30.9 °F 34 23 18.6°F 19
01-13-18 7 16.3 °F 21 14 ↓ 14.4°F 14 10 ↑ 34.5 °F 35 34 7.8°F 15 7 24.4 °F 20 10 -0.1°F -1 -7 18.4 °F 19 9 4.3°F 4
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2
% Succ     0.0 16.7   33.3     20.0     20.0     25.0     50.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 22.2   6.4 9.4   3.1 26.6   6.1 11.4   4.6 26.4   6.0 7.8   2.3 29.7   4.6 5.3   3.3
Net Error -22.2   0.5 9.3   -1.2 -26.6   0.2 11.4   -1.8 -26.4   3.1 7.8   -2.3 -29.7   4.6 5.3   -3.0
Std Dev 10.0   4.8 6.8   2.2 17.4   4.9 8.0   3.1 22.9   7.3 6.7   2.2 29.7   4.6 5.3   3.3

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 43 ↓   50 23   28 49 ↓   64 24   27 43   60 30   38 42   42 27   22
01-17-18 31 ↓ 30.9 °F 35 11 18.0°F 16 43 ↓   53 24   26 53   61 26   27 45   55 28   39
01-16-18 10 ↓ 18.4 °F 14 -4 ↑ 4.3°F 2 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 14 43   58 25   30 49   70 26   37
01-15-18 7 ↓ 24.4 °F 10 -6 -1.0°F -5 9 ↓ 18.4 °F 13 -4 4.3°F 1 26 30.9 °F 32 14 18.0°F 16 41   52 25   25
01-14-18 30 34.5 °F 38 6 ↑ 5.3°F 13 8 ↓ 24.4 °F 15 -6 -1.0°F -3 9 18.4 °F 16 -5 4.3°F 3 23 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 19
01-13-18 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 21 10 ↑ 14.4°F 14 34 34.5 °F 35 7 5.3°F 15 10 24.4 °F 20 -7 -1.0°F -1 9 18.4 °F 19 -5 4.3°F 3
01-12-18 13 13.1 °F 20 4 9.4°F 6 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 26 8 14.4°F 14 33 34.5 °F 35 10 5.3°F 13 12 24.4 °F 16 -6 -1.0°F -3
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 3 0 1 0 3
% Succ 33.3   0.0 16.7   33.3 20.0   20.0 20.0   40.0 25.0   50.0     75.0     33.3     100.0
Ave Error 5.5   6.3 5.1   3.3 6.3   5.6 5.3   3.9 7.6   2.1 6.0   2.8 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.4
Net Error -5.4   0.1 -4.9   -0.7 -6.3   -0.3 -4.6   -0.0 -7.6   -1.3 -3.7   1.1 -9.9   -1.6 -6.4   -0.8
Std Dev 6.1   4.6 3.2   2.6 6.4   4.1 3.6   2.6 6.7   1.9 5.3   2.4 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.4

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 41 ↓   52 23   30 49 ↓   65 24   31 43   61 30   38 42   43 27   28
01-17-18 31 ↓ 30.9 °F 33 11 18.0°F 18 43 ↓   53 24   29 53   62 26   25 45   55 28   39
01-16-18 10 ↓ 18.4 °F 14 -4 ↑ 4.3°F 1 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 14 43   55 25   27 49   63 26   29
01-15-18 7 ↓ 24.4 °F 10 -6 -1.0°F -6 9 ↓ 18.4 °F 13 -4 4.3°F 2 26 30.9 °F 34 14 18.0°F 15 41   54 25   28
01-14-18 30 34.5 °F 38 6 ↑ 5.3°F 13 8 ↓ 24.4 °F 15 -6 -1.0°F -3 9 18.4 °F 17 -5 4.3°F 3 23 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 18
01-13-18 13 ↓ 16.3 °F 21 10 ↑ 14.4°F 14 34 34.5 °F 35 7 5.3°F 15 10 24.4 °F 20 -7 -1.0°F -1 9 18.4 °F 19 -5 4.3°F 3
01-12-18 13 13.1 °F 15 4 9.4°F 5 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 25 8 14.4°F 13 33 34.5 °F 31 10 5.3°F 11 12 24.4 °F 16 -6 -1.0°F -5
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 16.7   33.3 20.0   20.0 20.0   40.0 25.0   25.0     50.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 5.6   5.2 5.1   3.5 6.3   5.4 5.3   3.9 7.6   3.1 6.0   2.5 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.8
Net Error -5.6   -1.1 -4.9   -0.9 -6.3   -0.5 -4.6   -0.0 -7.6   -1.6 -3.7   0.4 -9.9   -1.6 -6.4   -1.8
Std Dev 6.0   4.6 3.2   3.0 6.4   4.0 3.6   2.7 6.7   2.7 5.3   2.2 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.8

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 41 ↓   46 23   28 49 ↓   64 24   29 43   60 30   37 42   42 27   29
01-17-18 31 ↓ 30.9 °F 32 11 18.0°F 16 43 ↓   52 24   26 53   62 26   24 45   55 28   39
01-16-18 10 ↓ 18.4 °F 17 -4 ↑ 4.3°F 3 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 15 43   55 25   27 49   63 26   29
01-15-18 7 ↓ 24.4 °F 10 -6 -1.0°F -6 9 ↓ 18.4 °F 13 -4 4.3°F 2 26 30.9 °F 34 14 18.0°F 15 41   54 25   28
01-14-18 30 34.5 °F 31 6 ↑ 5.3°F 12 8 ↓ 24.4 °F 14 -6 -1.0°F -2 9 18.4 °F 17 -5 4.3°F 2 23 30.9 °F 34 13 18.0°F 18
01-13-18 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 19 10 ↑ 14.4°F 15 34 34.5 °F 35 7 5.3°F 15 10 24.4 °F 19 -7 -1.0°F -1 9 18.4 °F 19 -5 4.3°F 3
01-12-18 13 13.1 °F 13 4 9.4°F 4 14 ↓ 16.3 °F 25 8 14.4°F 13 33 34.5 °F 31 10 5.3°F 11 12 24.4 °F 16 -6 -1.0°F -5
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 2
% Succ 33.3   50.0 16.7   50.0 20.0   20.0 20.0   40.0 25.0   25.0     25.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 5.5   3.9 5.1   3.5 6.3   5.6 5.3   3.5 7.6   3.4 6.0   2.8 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.8
Net Error -5.4   -2.6 -4.9   -1.1 -6.3   -0.7 -4.6   0.4 -7.6   -1.8 -3.7   0.1 -9.9   -1.6 -6.4   -1.8
Std Dev 6.1   4.9 3.2   2.6 6.4   4.3 3.6   2.5 6.7   2.9 5.3   2.4 9.9   4.0 6.4   1.8

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 41 ↓   30 23   65 49 ↓   29 24   60 43   36 29   42 41   26 27   32
01-17-18 31 ↓ 18.0°F 16 11 30.9 °F 52 43 ↓   30 24   63 53   24 26   58 45   42 28   48
01-16-18 15 ↓ 4.3°F 4 -3 18.4 °F 35 27 ↓ 18.0°F 17 13 30.9 °F 55 44   28 24   63 49   32 27   59
01-15-18 7 ↓ -1.0°F -7 -6 24.4 °F 12 10 ↓ 4.3°F 1 -3 18.4 °F 33 27 18.0°F 14 14 30.9 °F 56 42   30 26   69
01-14-18 30 5.3°F 12 7 ↑ 34.5 °F 14 8 ↓ -1.0°F -3 -6 24.4 °F 17 9 4.3°F 3 -4 18.4 °F 34 24 18.0°F 16 14 30.9 °F 51
01-13-18 14 ↓ 14.4°F 12 11 ↑ 16.3 °F 33 34 ↓ 5.3°F 12 7 34.5 °F 15 9 -1.0°F -4 -7 24.4 °F 15 9 4.3°F -3 -5 18.4 °F 29
01-12-18 13 ↓ 9.4°F 5 2 13.1 °F 24 14 ↓ 14.4°F 14 10 16.3 °F 33 33 5.3°F 16 11 34.5 °F 19 11 -1.0°F 0 -6 24.4 °F 17
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3     0.0 20.0   60.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 10.1   3.6 19.3   16.4 10.6   2.7 20.7   16.5 12.9   4.8 23.6   16.4 7.6   3.4 23.6   12.7
Net Error 9.9   -1.4 -19.3   5.4 10.4   0.0 -20.7   5.7 12.9   0.6 -23.6   4.0 7.6   -2.8 -23.6   7.8
Std Dev 8.4   2.7 11.3   7.3 7.1   1.9 13.9   11.7 11.3   4.1 20.7   14.9 7.6   3.4 23.6   12.7

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 23   30 49 ↓   65 24   30 43   59 29   36 41   41 27   26 34   32
01-17-18 11 18.0°F 14 43 ↓ 30.9 °F 51 24   25 53   63 26   24 45   57 28   41 39   48
01-16-18 -3 4.3°F 4 27 ↓ 18.4 °F 36 13 18.0°F 17 44 30.9 °F 55 24   26 49   62 27   31 44   59
01-15-18 -6 -1.0°F -5 10 ↓ 24.4 °F 14 -3 4.3°F 2 27 18.4 °F 33 14 18.0°F 14 42 30.9 °F 56 26   31 48   70
01-14-18 7 ↑ 5.3°F 12 8 ↓ 34.5 °F 14 -6 -1.0°F 2 9 24.4 °F 19 -4 4.3°F 5 24 18.4 °F 35 14 18.0°F 16 39 30.9 °F 51
01-13-18 11 ↑ 14.4°F 13 34 ↓ 16.3 °F 33 7 ↑ 5.3°F 13 9 34.5 °F 16 -7 -1.0°F -2 9 24.4 °F 16 -5 4.3°F -3 23 18.4 °F 30
01-12-18 2 9.4°F 4 14 ↓ 13.1 °F 23 10 ↑ 14.4°F 14 33 16.3 °F 33 11 5.3°F 16 11 34.5 °F 19 -6 -1.0°F 0 10 24.4 °F 17
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   0.0 20.0   40.0     0.0     50.0     0.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 5.3   3.6 13.4   15.9 4.7   2.9 15.9   15.9 6.0   4.1 13.9   16.4 6.1   3.4 9.0   13.0
Net Error -4.7   -1.4 -0.3   5.6 -4.0   1.4 -0.5   6.3 -3.2   1.6 -5.6   4.5 -6.1   -2.8 -0.6   8.1
Std Dev 2.9   2.5 8.1   7.4 3.2   2.0 10.6   11.7 5.3   3.6 12.1   14.9 6.1   3.4 9.0   13.0

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 01-18-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-18 26   30 49 ↓   64 24   30 43   60 29   37 41   43 27   26 34   27
01-17-18 12 34.2°F 17 41 ↓ 30.9 °F 51 23   29 50   63 25   25 44   58 29   41 40   49
01-16-18 -3 23.1°F 4 27 ↓ 18.4 °F 36 13 34.2°F 17 44 30.9 °F 53 24   26 49   62 27   26 44   56
01-15-18 -6 4.8°F -4 10 ↓ 24.4 °F 14 -3 23.1°F 4 27 18.4 °F 36 14 34.2°F 16 42 30.9 °F 57 26   31 48   69
01-14-18 5 ↑ 0.3°F 11 7 ↓ 34.5 °F 13 -6 4.8°F 2 9 24.4 °F 20 -4 23.1°F 3 24 18.4 °F 33 14 34.2°F 17 39 30.9 °F 53
01-13-18 12 ↑ 26.9°F 14 34 ↓ 16.3 °F 33 7 ↑ 0.3°F 13 9 34.5 °F 15 -7 4.8°F -2 9 24.4 °F 15 -5 23.1°F -1 23 18.4 °F 33
01-12-18 2 14.4°F 5 14 ↓ 13.1 °F 20 10 ↑ 26.9°F 13 33 16.3 °F 34 11 0.3°F 16 11 34.5 °F 19 -6 4.8°F -1 10 24.4 °F 19
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0 16.7   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 15.2   13.0 13.2   15.5 16.3   13.1 15.9   16.3 17.5   15.2 13.9   16.4 19.7   15.7 9.0   14.0
Net Error -13.6   -9.5 -0.8   4.9 -13.7   -8.1 -0.5   6.7 -12.1   -7.4 -5.6   4.0 -19.7   -15.7 -0.6   10.4
Std Dev 9.4   6.4 8.5   7.4 11.7   10.0 10.6   11.9 15.2   13.2 12.1   15.0 19.7   15.7 9.0   14.0

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.