Current WXSIM Forecast

Saturday, 17-Aug-2019 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Clear
Clear
High: 89°
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 70°
Sunday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 81°
Sunday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 60°
Monday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 87°
Monday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 69°
Tuesday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 95°
Tuesday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 71°
Wednesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 80°

Current NWS Forecast

Sat, 17-Aug-2019 11:30am CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 88 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 66 °F ↑
Sunday

Sunday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Partly Sunny
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Partly Sunny

Hi 86 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 67 °F
Monday

Monday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 90 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 73 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Mostly Sunny

Hi 95 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 68 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 82 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-19 65   69 88   89 69 ↑   71 87   83 69   62 93   87 74   72 94   96
08-16-19 63 ↑ 71.7°F 64 85 84.8 °F 86 65   68 88   86 70   68 90   86 72   67 94   92
08-15-19 63 65.6°F 60 80 75.2 °F 75 65 71.7°F 63 85 84.8 °F 81 68   66 89   85 71   70 89   89
08-14-19 61 ↑ 62.3°F 68 80 84.7 °F 85 63 65.6°F 64 83 75.2 °F 76 67 71.7°F 66 86 84.8 °F 83 67   68 87   85
08-13-19 65 ↑ 69.9°F 70 86 95.8 °F 88 62 ↑ 62.3°F 65 81 84.7 °F 83 62 65.6°F 63 82 75.2 °F 81 66 71.7°F 64 86 84.8 °F 85
08-12-19 73 74.1°F 71 86 94.0 °F 87 69 69.9°F 68 87 95.8 °F 87 63 62.3°F 66 81 84.7 °F 83 63 65.6°F 64 84 75.2 °F 83
08-11-19 73 ↑ 74.9°F 73 85 88.1 °F 93 73 74.1°F 72 90 94.0 °F 87 68 69.9°F 69 85 95.8 °F 86 62 62.3°F 68 83 84.7 °F 88
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1
% Succ 50.0   33.3 16.7   50.0 60.0   40.0 20.0   40.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 3.4   4.0 5.1   3.6 2.3   3.4 4.9   4.4 2.7   3.2 5.6   4.8 2.9   5.0 3.9   3.8
Net Error -3.4   -2.1 -3.4   -1.4 -2.3   -2.3 -1.7   -4.1 -2.4   -1.4 -1.6   -1.9 -2.9   -1.2 2.8   3.8
Std Dev 3.0   2.9 3.7   3.4 2.6   3.3 4.0   3.5 2.6   3.1 5.4   4.4 2.9   5.0 3.9   3.8

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-19 65 ↑   89 88   70 66 ↑   83 86   62 67   87 90   71 73   95 95   71
08-16-19 63 100.5 °F 84 82 76.1°F 67 65   86 86   67 68   86 88   66 71   92 94   75
08-15-19 62 100.5 °F 76 81 76.1°F 63 64 100.5 °F 82 86 76.1°F 66 66   86 88   70 69   89 90   72
08-14-19 61 ↑ 84.7 °F 84 84 61.2°F 63 64 100.5 °F 76 82 76.1°F 65 66 100.5 °F 81 85 76.1°F 67 68   87 88   69
08-13-19 65 ↑ 95.8 °F 88 84 64.4°F 65 62 ↑ 84.7 °F 83 79 61.2°F 63 63 100.5 °F 82 83 76.1°F 64 66 100.5 °F 85 82 76.1°F 68
08-12-19 73 94.0 °F 87 84 72.4°F 67 66 ↑ 95.8 °F 87 85 64.4°F 66 63 84.7 °F 84 81 61.2°F 63 63 100.5 °F 83 84 76.1°F 65
08-11-19 73 ↑ 88.1 °F 91 83 69.1°F 74 73 94.0 °F 87 87 72.4°F 68 69 95.8 °F 86 86 64.4°F 66 62 84.7 °F 85 83 61.2°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     33.3     20.0     40.0     25.0     50.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 27.8   9.9 13.1   5.8 29.3   12.1 13.8   5.8 30.1   12.1 14.3   6.2 31.6   11.1 11.9   8.7
Net Error -27.8   -8.9 13.1   -3.4 -29.3   -12.1 13.8   -4.4 -30.1   -12.1 14.3   -4.5 -31.6   -10.9 11.9   -4.1
Std Dev 13.2   8.7 8.5   4.9 19.3   10.9 9.7   5.1 26.2   11.1 12.7   5.5 31.6   11.1 11.9   8.7

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-19 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-19 88   87 66 ↑   68 86   81 67   60 90   87 73   67 95   97 68   70
08-16-19 82 84.8 °F 81 65 67.8°F 64 86   87 68   69 88   85 71   66 94   88 74   72
08-15-19 81 100.5 °F 76 64 76.1°F 63 86 84.8 °F 82 66 67.8°F 66 88   86 69   70 90   89 72   72
08-14-19 84 100.5 °F 81 64 76.1°F 60 82 100.5 °F 74 66 76.1°F 64 85 84.8 °F 84 68 67.8°F 67 88   86 69   67
08-13-19 84 100.5 °F 88 62 ↑ 76.1°F 66 79 100.5 °F 84 63 76.1°F 64 83 100.5 °F 77 66 76.1°F 64 82 84.8 °F 84 67 67.8°F 69
08-12-19 84 100.5 °F 88 66 ↑ 76.1°F 66 85 100.5 °F 86 63 76.1°F 67 81 100.5 °F 86 63 76.1°F 63 84 100.5 °F 83 68 76.1°F 66
08-11-19 83 100.5 °F 84 73 76.1°F 72 87 100.5 °F 89 69 76.1°F 70 86 100.5 °F 86 62 76.1°F 66 83 100.5 °F 82 64 76.1°F 64
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
% Succ     0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0     33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 14.9   14.9 9.1   9.6 14.0   14.4 9.0   8.2 12.9   13.3 9.4   9.0 12.3   12.3 7.0   7.8
Net Error -14.9   -14.9 -9.1   -9.6 -13.6   -14.4 -9.0   -8.2 -12.8   -13.3 -9.3   -9.0 -12.3   -12.3 -7.0   -7.0
Std Dev 8.1   8.8 5.3   5.5 11.3   11.8 6.8   6.4 12.9   13.1 9.3   8.8 12.3   12.3 7.0   7.8

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-19 88   89 66 ↑   70 86   81 67   60 90   87 73   69 95   95 68   71
08-16-19 82 84.8 °F 82 65 67.8°F 65 86   88 68   70 88   85 71   66 94   88 74   73
08-14-19 84 75.2 °F 79 64 65.7°F 59 82 84.8 °F 75 66 67.8°F 65 85   84 68   67 88   85 69   67
08-13-19 87 95.8 °F 89 62 ↑ 62.4°F 67 79 75.2 °F 82 63 65.7°F 64 83 84.8 °F 76 66 67.8°F 65 82   83 67   69
08-12-19 84 100.5 °F 89 66 ↑ 76.1°F 67 85 95.8 °F 86 63 62.4°F 67 81 75.2 °F 85 63 65.7°F 64 84 84.8 °F 82 68 67.8°F 67
08-11-19 83 100.5 °F 87 73 76.1°F 72 87 100.5 °F 89 69 76.1°F 69 86 95.8 °F 86 62 62.4°F 66 83 75.2 °F 83 64 65.7°F 64
08-10-19 93 91.0 °F 93 70 ↑ 71.1°F 74 87 100.5 °F 85 73 76.1°F 71 89 100.5 °F 88 68 76.1°F 69 86 95.8 °F 81 63 62.4°F 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 3 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 3
% Succ 16.7   16.7 50.0   0.0     0.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   0.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 100.0   100.0
Ave Error 9.4   6.7 3.2   5.0 8.9   10.7 3.1   4.3 7.2   10.2 3.3   3.8 6.1   8.5 0.8   1.0
Net Error -5.8   -4.8 -3.2   -2.5 -7.4   -8.0 -2.8   -2.4 -4.3   -5.3 -3.3   -2.0 -0.9   -3.3 -0.3   -0.6
Std Dev 6.4   4.8 3.4   2.9 6.7   7.0 2.3   3.0 6.8   8.9 2.9   3.3 6.1   8.5 0.8   1.0

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-16-19 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-19 84   83 65   66 88   87 69   71 87   85 69   65 93   88 74   75
08-15-19 76 75.2 °F 71 64 65.7°F 62 86   83 66   67 88   86 69   70 90   85 72   67
08-14-19 84 84.7 °F 84 64 60.3°F 63 82 75.2 °F 72 66 65.7°F 65 85   83 68   69 88   87 69   69
08-13-19 87 95.8 °F 93 62 ↑ 62.4°F 68 79 84.7 °F 83 63 60.3°F 63 83 75.2 °F 80 66 65.7°F 65 82   84 67   68
08-12-19 84 94.0 °F 95 66 ↑ 71.4°F 72 85 95.8 °F 88 63 62.4°F 69 81 84.7 °F 84 63 60.3°F 65 84 75.2 °F 84 68 65.7°F 66
08-11-19 83 88.1 °F 90 73 68.7°F 74 87 94.0 °F 87 69 71.4°F 69 86 95.8 °F 85 62 62.4°F 67 83 84.7 °F 83 64 60.3°F 63
08-10-19 93 100.5 °F 91 70 ↑ 76.1°F 73 87 88.1 °F 81 73 68.7°F 70 89 94.0 °F 86 68 71.4°F 69 86 95.8 °F 81 63 62.4°F 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 2
% Succ 33.3   50.0 33.3   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   40.0     25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 5.5   3.4 3.6   3.5 6.3   5.4 2.1   2.7 6.6   6.1 1.7   3.1 6.8   8.4 2.2   1.2
Net Error -5.2   -2.4 -0.9   1.2 -3.6   -5.4 1.1   1.5 -2.7   -3.7 -0.2   1.6 -0.9   -2.6 2.2   1.2
Std Dev 4.2   2.1 2.3   2.2 4.5   4.0 1.7   2.6 5.7   5.3 1.6   2.9 6.8   8.4 2.2   1.2

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-16-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-19 84   69 65   88 88   72 69   86 87   66 69   88 93   76 74   96
08-15-19 75 ↓ 76.1°F 63 63 ↑ 100.5 °F 84 85   67 65   86 88   70 70   86 90   67 72   90
08-14-19 84 60.3°F 62 63 84.7 °F 72 80 76.1°F 65 65 100.5 °F 83 85   69 68   87 89   69 71   88
08-13-19 88 ↓ 62.4°F 70 61 ↑ 95.8 °F 83 80 60.3°F 64 63 84.7 °F 81 83 76.1°F 65 67 100.5 °F 84 86   68 67   86
08-12-19 90 71.4°F 70 65 ↑ 94.0 °F 85 86 62.4°F 67 62 95.8 °F 84 81 60.3°F 65 62 84.7 °F 84 82 76.1°F 66 66 100.5 °F 86
08-11-19 83 68.7°F 73 73 88.1 °F 85 86 ↓ 71.4°F 69 69 94.0 °F 85 87 62.4°F 67 63 95.8 °F 83 81 60.3°F 63 63 84.7 °F 79
08-10-19 93 76.1°F 74 71 ↑ 100.5 °F 85 85 68.7°F 71 73 88.1 °F 82 90 71.4°F 68 68 94.0 °F 83 85 62.4°F 63 62 95.8 °F 82
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     25.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 16.7   5.0 27.9   11.6 15.6   4.8 26.2   9.6 17.7   6.0 28.8   10.3 16.4   4.5 30.0   11.3
Net Error 16.3   -0.5 -27.9   -11.6 15.6   -0.6 -26.2   -9.6 17.7   -1.3 -28.8   -10.3 16.4   -2.3 -30.0   -11.3
Std Dev 10.5   4.5 13.7   6.3 11.9   4.2 17.5   7.6 16.3   5.8 25.0   9.4 16.4   4.5 30.0   11.3

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-16-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-19 65   68 88   89 69 ↑   69 87   84 69   63 93   88 74   72 94   95
08-15-19 63 ↑ 76.1°F 64 85 100.5 °F 84 65   67 88   88 70   71 90   87 72   67 94   91
08-14-19 63 60.3°F 62 80 84.7 °F 73 65 76.1°F 65 85 100.5 °F 83 68   68 89   87 71   69 89   85
08-13-19 61 ↑ 76.1°F 67 80 100.5 °F 83 63 60.3°F 63 83 84.7 °F 76 67 76.1°F 66 86 100.5 °F 83 67   68 87   85
08-12-19 65 ↑ 76.1°F 71 86 100.5 °F 88 62 ↑ 76.1°F 68 81 100.5 °F 83 62 60.3°F 63 82 84.7 °F 84 66 76.1°F 65 86 100.5 °F 86
08-11-19 73 68.7°F 71 86 88.1 °F 84 69 76.1°F 68 87 100.5 °F 86 63 76.1°F 68 81 100.5 °F 84 63 60.3°F 64 84 84.7 °F 83
08-10-19 73 ↑ 71.1°F 75 85 91.0 °F 88 73 68.7°F 72 90 88.1 °F 77 68 76.1°F 68 85 100.5 °F 84 62 76.1°F 63 83 100.5 °F 80
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7     0.0     0.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   0.0     25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 8.0   5.7 10.6   10.9 7.9   6.7 10.4   13.9 8.0   7.3 13.1   12.8 9.0   9.3 10.9   12.2
Net Error -5.1   -3.1 -10.6   -10.9 -5.1   -4.3 -9.7   -13.9 -7.2   -5.9 -13.1   -12.8 -7.2   -6.8 -10.9   -12.2
Std Dev 5.7   4.3 7.7   6.4 6.3   5.0 9.0   9.4 7.0   6.4 11.3   11.3 9.0   9.3 10.9   12.2

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-16-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-19 65   68 88   89 69 ↑   69 87   83 69   62 93   88 74   72 94   95
08-15-19 63 ↑ 73.3°F 64 85 75.2 °F 85 65   67 88   87 70   70 90   87 72   66 94   91
08-14-19 63 76.1°F 62 80 100.5 °F 73 65 73.3°F 64 85 75.2 °F 82 68   67 89   87 71   68 89   85
08-13-19 61 ↑ 66.9°F 68 80 95.8 °F 85 63 76.1°F 64 83 100.5 °F 76 67 73.3°F 66 86 75.2 °F 83 67   68 87   85
08-12-19 65 ↑ 75.4°F 70 86 94.0 °F 88 62 ↑ 66.9°F 68 81 95.8 °F 84 62 76.1°F 62 82 100.5 °F 83 66 73.3°F 65 86 75.2 °F 85
08-11-19 73 76.5°F 71 86 88.1 °F 88 69 75.4°F 69 87 94.0 °F 86 63 66.9°F 69 81 95.8 °F 84 63 76.1°F 64 84 100.5 °F 84
08-10-19 73 ↑ 75.6°F 78 85 91.0 °F 84 73 76.5°F 75 90 88.1 °F 90 68 75.4°F 73 85 94.0 °F 85 62 66.9°F 67 83 95.8 °F 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     16.7     40.0 20.0   20.0     0.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 7.6   6.3 10.4   10.2 7.2   6.1 10.2   10.6 7.9   6.5 13.3   11.5 8.4   6.8 13.4   12.7
Net Error -7.6   -5.1 -7.1   -6.9 -7.2   -5.6 -5.5   -7.1 -7.9   -5.4 -7.9   -7.6 -8.4   -6.8 -6.2   -6.2
Std Dev 4.5   4.8 7.2   9.3 5.4   5.4 7.5   9.3 6.9   5.6 11.6   10.2 8.4   6.8 13.4   12.7

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.